I have to chuckle to myself when I read how things are starting to pick up. Consumer sentiment is improving, the markets are up 20% (even though the economy shrunk more than 6% in the last quarter), the banks are making money, housing prices are down 8% but it is the first month not to set a record!
Well, some see all these items and say that we are at the bottom and that things are only going to head up from here. I don't feel this way. My main concern has to do with an item that is not really seriously discussed : Jobs
We have supposedly lost over 7 million jobs since the last quarter of 2007. We are expecting to continue to see increases in unemployment into 2010. My question is: How can we see a significant improvement in the economy when the country is losing jobs at this rate?
I think there is general agreement that the US economy has been sustained over the last few decades by bubbles of inflated value. The most recent bubble was housing. A minor bubble that continues to this day is credit card debt. These credit bubbles have allowed people to borrow and spend beyond their real income so as to grow our economy (about 70% of our economy comes from consumer spending). The US worker income is not growing at a rate to support a growth of the economy - bottom line. With the exception of a few percentage of the jobs that are highly paid and with large growth in total compensation, the vast number of workers are seeing little to no pay increases and increases in their out of pocket costs for health care. This trend is only growing in the current bad economy.
So what we have now is actually flat or decreasing income for those who still have jobs and massive job losses in the overall job market. This will not allow the economy to grow significantly. The economy will need consumer spending growth to pick up as the government cannot maintain deficit spending at current levels ( the current unsustainable bubble). How can this happen? Where will the jobs come from?
I will give some of my thoughts on this question later (on things like the green economy, etc.)
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Chippewa 50
Well it was a nice change from last year. The Chippewa 50K ultra in norther Wisconsin is one of the most beautiful races I have run. It is well directed by Wynn Davis and his team of wonderful volunteers.
Recap
It looked like the history of crummy weather was going to continue in the second year. The drive up from Madison offered rain and pelting hail. I started wondering what you do if you are on a trail and golf ball hail starts up? Anyway, the day turned out perfect; cool and dry with 45 to 55F cloudy weather. Perfect spring weather for Wsiconsin runners. After a quick chat about some course changes, Wynn ran the bell and off we went - straight down an evil hill that would come back to haunt me at the finish.
My plan was to try to average 10' miles. I don't know why this was my plan. I have not done enough long trail runs or trail races this spring to have some realistic expectation. Anyway as I ran along with others on the beautiful single track around lakes, over boardwalks I did manage to hit the first 10 miles in about 100 minutes. I felt pretty good so I tried to keep the pace and stop for food at the aid stations. I always have issues with eating in these races. I love MM's but cannot figure out how to eat them during a race. I also get tired of sugary foods. I won a bottle of apple cinnamon heave/Heed last year so I carry a vial of this with me and it is growing on me. Peanut butter sandwich piees seem to be my current food of choice. As we got to around 14 miles, I saw a tent and some campers crawling out with their coats. They must have been shocked to see 200 runners in shorts and shirts cruising back and forth for a few hours at their remote lakeside spot.
Actually a bt before this, I saw the lead runners on their way back. I didn't really know where I was at and was a bit surprised to run by about 30 or 40 runners. Soon we arrived at the turnaround aid station (just past the hunting blind - turkey season?). I still was feeling Ok but a bit leg tired.
I hit 20 miles and figured I had dropped about 8 minutes from my first 10 mile pace. I cannot really control this very much. There is only one direction for me once my pace starts to drop. I passed a few runners and played leapfrog with Karen Schoenrock (F2) for the last part of the race. I felt OK actually and only bogged down the last 3 miles or so. It is tough to finish this race for two reasons:
1. You go right next to the finish at 29 miles at the top of a hill and you know you need to do another 2 miles.
2. That mother hill at the end. I don't know who that person was harrasing me to run the hill but that was not going to happen.
The finish is a relief about 100 feet beyond the top of the hill.
Not too sore that night and went back with my wife, Geri, to run 4.5 miles on Sunday. I am happy!!
Great race and one I hope to return to annually.
One request: I am not wining but there are better beers to showcase Wisconsin than Leinenkugels! Hint Hint
Recap
It looked like the history of crummy weather was going to continue in the second year. The drive up from Madison offered rain and pelting hail. I started wondering what you do if you are on a trail and golf ball hail starts up? Anyway, the day turned out perfect; cool and dry with 45 to 55F cloudy weather. Perfect spring weather for Wsiconsin runners. After a quick chat about some course changes, Wynn ran the bell and off we went - straight down an evil hill that would come back to haunt me at the finish.
My plan was to try to average 10' miles. I don't know why this was my plan. I have not done enough long trail runs or trail races this spring to have some realistic expectation. Anyway as I ran along with others on the beautiful single track around lakes, over boardwalks I did manage to hit the first 10 miles in about 100 minutes. I felt pretty good so I tried to keep the pace and stop for food at the aid stations. I always have issues with eating in these races. I love MM's but cannot figure out how to eat them during a race. I also get tired of sugary foods. I won a bottle of apple cinnamon heave/Heed last year so I carry a vial of this with me and it is growing on me. Peanut butter sandwich piees seem to be my current food of choice. As we got to around 14 miles, I saw a tent and some campers crawling out with their coats. They must have been shocked to see 200 runners in shorts and shirts cruising back and forth for a few hours at their remote lakeside spot.
Actually a bt before this, I saw the lead runners on their way back. I didn't really know where I was at and was a bit surprised to run by about 30 or 40 runners. Soon we arrived at the turnaround aid station (just past the hunting blind - turkey season?). I still was feeling Ok but a bit leg tired.
I hit 20 miles and figured I had dropped about 8 minutes from my first 10 mile pace. I cannot really control this very much. There is only one direction for me once my pace starts to drop. I passed a few runners and played leapfrog with Karen Schoenrock (F2) for the last part of the race. I felt OK actually and only bogged down the last 3 miles or so. It is tough to finish this race for two reasons:
1. You go right next to the finish at 29 miles at the top of a hill and you know you need to do another 2 miles.
2. That mother hill at the end. I don't know who that person was harrasing me to run the hill but that was not going to happen.
The finish is a relief about 100 feet beyond the top of the hill.
Not too sore that night and went back with my wife, Geri, to run 4.5 miles on Sunday. I am happy!!
Great race and one I hope to return to annually.
One request: I am not wining but there are better beers to showcase Wisconsin than Leinenkugels! Hint Hint
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